NSFW

Yesterday's post sucked, didn't it? You don't have to be polite. I'm perfectly aware that Thursday was a big freaking letdown after the beauty I managed to craft on Wednesday, but this shit is going to happen. I have to post every day this month or I will feel like less of a man, and my penis is very important to me. I have no idea why I think my penis or your perception of it can be affected by how well I stick to NaBloPoMo, but it's what I feel and one should always follow one's heart. My heart says that a man's value is entirely in his penis and when he loses that, he's got nothing in this world.

But enough of that. I had intended to make yesterday's post more self-deprecating. I'm perfectly aware I'm not really as good at calling college football games as I think I am. Sure, I get it right frequently enough that if I were putting money on these picks that I'd actually end up coming out well ahead at the end of the season, but that's only because I'm not putting any money on it. The second I placed a real set of bets, I know I'd somehow manage to blow every pick. I'm not a gambler. Never will be. Despite that, I start getting a big head every time I see the green "correct" pop up next to one of my picks. It's all too easy to ignore the fact that my success is at least half based on luck. It's true that having a little bit of knowledge gives you a decided advantage, but I don't really even pay attention to things like type of defense and how well the other offense plays against teams with that sort of defense. I just look at past performance and generalize that to the future and follow my gut. The only problem with that is that anyone who thinks their gut actually knows what it's talking about is an idiot. People really suck at perceiving reality and assessing risk. Our guts are actually mentally challenged.

And that's why I am a jackass, but at least I still have my penis.